The Lower Eastern Times Opening The Third Eye
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A forecast from meteorologists at the Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, based in Nairobi, indicates that Kenya is likely to experience above-average rainfall in the upcoming planting season, set to commence early next month.
The weather experts express a high level of confidence in this forecast, suggesting that the likelihood of heavier rainfall exceeds 70 percent. The March-May long rains are particularly significant for Kenya, accounting for approximately 40 percent of the country’s total rainfall.
During a meeting held in Kampala, meteorologists compared models for the March-May season, concluding that wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across most regions, especially in western Kenya and along the borders with Uganda, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The onset of the rains is predicted to begin in southern areas bordering Tanzania before spreading to central and western Kenya. April is anticipated to experience the heaviest rainfall, with the season typically concluding in May.
Despite uncertainties regarding the exact onset dates, early indications align closely with patterns observed in 2010 and 2016. However, there are disagreements among global models regarding onset dates, with variances of 10-20 days in some regions.
The forecast suggests a probability of more than 70 percent that rainfall will exceed average levels in the region. The Kenya Meteorological Department is expected to release a localized forecast by the end of this month.
While the forecast indicates a favorable outlook for agricultural activities, dry spells are expected to occur intermittently, leading to sunny conditions for several days.
The projected heavy rainfall is anticipated to result in a successful harvest for the long rains season, with Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi projecting a maize harvest of over 60 million bags from the October-December short rains season.
The government has taken measures to support farmers, including the distribution of subsidized fertilizer and procurement of drying equipment to minimize post-harvest losses. Linturi assures farmers of fair prices and encourages them to utilize available storage options, including the Warehouse Receipting System provided by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB).
