The Lower Eastern Times Opening The Third Eye
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Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi businesswoman Agnes Kagure have taken an early lead in the race for the 2027 Nairobi County gubernatorial seat, according to a recent opinion poll by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).
The survey, released on March 5, 2026, places Babu Owino slightly ahead with 31 percent support, while Kagure follows closely with 30 percent, pointing to what could develop into a highly competitive race for the capital’s top seat.
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Former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru comes in third with 24 percent support. Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja trails significantly with 5 percent in the poll.
Other possible candidates recorded lower support levels, including Embakasi North MP James Gakuya at 3 percent, former Industrialization Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera at 1 percent, and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri also at 1 percent. About 4 percent of those surveyed said they were still undecided.
The poll also highlighted widespread dissatisfaction with the current county leadership. Only 8 percent of respondents said they approve of Governor Sakaja’s performance, while 82 percent expressed disapproval. Another 10 percent said they had no opinion.
CAP said the survey was carried out between February 25 and March 1, 2026, using targeted random sampling across Nairobi’s 17 constituencies. A total of 6,000 people participated in the study, which had a margin of error of ±1.97 percent.
Researchers noted that issues such as the economy, security, and the popularity of individual candidates are likely to influence the 2027 race. Political alignments within both the ruling coalition and opposition are also expected to shape the final list of candidates.
With more than 2.4 million registered voters, Nairobi County remains a key political battleground ahead of the next general election.
Although the contest is still in its early stages, the survey suggests the race for Nairobi governor is already beginning to take shape, with several prominent figures positioning themselves for what could become one of the country’s most closely watched political contests.
