The Lower Eastern Times Opening The Third Eye
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Kenya may suffer economic losses of up to Sh1 trillion and face worsening food insecurity over the next decade due to the 2023 ban on eight key pesticide ingredients, according to a new report.
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The banned substances—used in over 140 pest control products—could lead to a 7.28% decline in GDP as early as 2025, the report warns. The assessment, titled “Impact Assessment on the Withdrawal of Eight Active Ingredients and Associated Pest Control Products in Kenya,” was commissioned by the Agrochemical Association of Kenya (AAK) and CropLife Kenya under the Grow initiative.
AAK CEO Eric Kimunguyi emphasized that the issue goes beyond chemicals, stating, “This isn’t just about pesticides; it’s about national food security, farmer livelihoods, and stability.” He criticized the abrupt ban for lacking a proper transition plan or suitable alternatives, leaving farmers vulnerable.
The report draws from interviews with 67 agricultural experts and exporters, surveys of 155 smallholder farmers, and research on pest trends and control options. It notes that Kenya’s tropical climate and rising temperatures are increasing pest risks, with crop damage expected to rise sharply in the absence of effective pesticides.
Key findings show that:
- 57% of farmers lose income due to pests each year.
- 97.4% of those surveyed rely on pesticides.
- Nearly half say their income would fall by over 75% without pesticide access.
The ban affects major crops such as maize, potatoes, wheat, coffee, tomatoes, and French beans. Thirteen pest pathways now lack any effective solution, while 20 others rely on a single method expected to fail within a few years due to resistance.
Wheat, for example, has only one remaining fungicide to combat leaf rust—expected to lose effectiveness by 2026.
The economic implications are dire:
- Farmers’ incomes could drop by 17.6% in 2025.
- Total farmer income losses may hit Sh124.6 billion in 2025 and Sh487.8 billion by 2034.
- Households could spend Sh183 billion more in 2025 on food substitution due to reduced marketable yields.
Because the affected crops provide 63% of the country’s calorie intake, national nutrition is also at risk. Without intervention or imports, daily caloric consumption could fall to 1,872 by 2025 and 1,767 by 2034—among the world’s lowest.
A public health expert quoted in the report warned that this could spark a national nutrition crisis, increasing malnutrition, stunting, anaemia, and diet-related illnesses.
The report also highlights the potential impact on exports. Four of Kenya’s top five export earners—tea, coffee, flowers, and fruits—are likely to experience production losses. Export revenues could shrink by $492.7 million in 2025 and $1.77 billion by 2034.
The ban also jeopardizes market access. Some pesticides were critical in controlling EU quarantine-listed pests. Without them, exports of crops like snow peas, chillies, and cucumbers could be blocked, costing Kenya an estimated Sh1.43 trillion in exports over 10 years.
The report criticizes the policy as being driven more by compliance with EU standards than by domestic agricultural and food security needs, raising concerns over regulatory sovereignty.
Recommendations include:
- Creating a transparent, Kenya-centric pesticide regulatory framework.
- Promoting awareness of safe alternatives.
- Reviewing the food security and trade impacts of the ban.
- Fast-tracking the development of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies.
Without urgent action, the report warns, Kenya could face deepening hunger, reduced agricultural productivity, and long-term economic setbacks.
