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Climate experts have warned that many parts of Kenya could face reduced rainfall and unusually high temperatures from June to September 2026, raising fears over food shortages, water scarcity and pressure on livelihoods.
The warning was issued in a new seasonal forecast released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum held in Addis Ababa.
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According to the outlook, western and coastal regions of Kenya are likely to record below-average rainfall during the important June–September rainy season, a period crucial for farming, water supply and hydropower production.
ICPAC noted that although most areas in western Kenya are expected to experience dry conditions, some coastal sections may still receive near-normal rainfall, offering slight relief to communities dependent on seasonal rains.
The regional body also projected higher-than-normal temperatures across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya, during the same period.
Experts warned that the combination of extreme heat and reduced rainfall could negatively affect rain-fed farming, lower water levels, weaken livestock productivity and worsen food insecurity. The conditions may also strain healthcare systems and hydropower generation.
Pastoralist communities living in arid and semi-arid areas are expected to be among the hardest hit as climate-related shocks continue to increase vulnerability.
ICPAC said the forecast resembles weather patterns witnessed during major El Niño years such as 1997 and 2023, when several areas, including western Kenya, experienced poor rainfall performance.
Speaking at the forum, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware stressed the need for countries to focus more on preparedness and response measures rather than only issuing climate alerts.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action’, recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” he said.
Ethiopian Meteorological Institute Director General Fetene Teshome also called for increased investment in climate services and stronger regional collaboration to improve resilience.
“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels,” Teshome said.
ICPAC added that it will continue providing regional weather updates, while national meteorological agencies are expected to issue detailed country-specific advisories in the coming weeks.
At the same time, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast rainfall in some parts of the country within the next 24 hours, with heavier downpours expected in the highlands west of the Rift Valley.
KMD also warned of strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots across sections of Northwestern, Northeastern, Coastal and Southeastern Lowlands.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in parts of the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and counties including Kakamega, Kisumu, Nakuru, Narok, Uasin Gishu and Kisii.
The weather department further projected sunny intervals in many areas, alongside light morning rains and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
With forecasts pointing to hotter and drier months ahead, focus is now shifting to how governments and regional authorities will prepare for the expected climate challenges.
