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The Kenya Meteorological Department has predicted a temporary break in rainfall across most regions of the country by the middle of this week, with rain expected to return by the weekend.
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The weather forecast for March 11 to 17, 2025, indicates that rainfall will occur in the Highlands, both west and east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi. Other affected areas include the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, South-eastern Lowlands, the Coast, and parts of Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya.
Although rainfall intensity is expected to decrease by midweek, the department warns that showers will intensify again toward the end of the forecast period. Isolated heavy downpours may occur at both the start and end of the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain high in certain areas, with daytime highs surpassing 30°C in the Coast, Northeastern, and Northwestern Kenya. In contrast, regions such as the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, Central Rift Valley, and the Mt. Kilimanjaro area will experience cooler nights, with temperatures dipping below 10°C.
The Meteorological Department has urged Kenyans to stay informed and take precautions, particularly in areas prone to heavy rainfall and temperature fluctuations.
Nairobi and much of the country have experienced heavy rains from Sunday evening to Tuesday. The monthly weather outlook for March 2025, released on February 28, suggested that rainfall will be near or above average in several regions, while some areas will see below-average rainfall.
David Gikungu, Director of Meteorological Services, has encouraged farmers to prepare and consult with local extension officers. The rains are expected to bring much-needed relief to the country, which has been suffering from dry and dusty conditions.
The Met Department attributes the expected rainfall to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a global pattern of clouds, rain, and storms that moves from west to east along the equator every 30 to 60 days. The MJO increases rainfall and storms when it is in a region, and when it moves away, the weather becomes drier and hotter. Gikungu noted that the MJO is expected to be in phase two starting the second week of March, potentially bringing an earlier-than-expected onset of rain in some areas.
