The Lower Eastern Times Opening The Third Eye
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The prolonged dry and sunny conditions affecting much of the country are expected to ease from March, according to a new forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
ICPAC says the March–April–May (MAM) rainfall season carries a 45 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall across large parts of Africa, including Kenya.
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The outlook was released on Tuesday following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72), held in Nairobi on January 26 and 27. The meeting brought together climate experts, national meteorological agencies, humanitarian actors and policymakers to evaluate seasonal climate risks and strengthen regional preparedness.
According to the forecast, most of the Greater Horn of Africa — including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central and western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti — has a 45 per cent likelihood of experiencing wetter-than-usual conditions during the MAM season.
The March–May period is the region’s main rainy season and is vital for agriculture, pasture recovery, water resources and hydropower generation.
Meanwhile, ICPAC projects a 40 per cent probability of near-average rainfall over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated parts of Uganda and Ethiopia.
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Coastal Kenya, however, is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, a situation that could affect farming activities and water supplies in the region.
On rainfall onset, the climate centre predicts normal to early start dates across most areas, although delayed onset is anticipated in some parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia.
ICPAC cautioned that seasonal forecasts still allow for variability, noting that dry spells may occur even in areas expected to receive higher rainfall, while occasional heavy rains could affect areas forecast to be drier.
Temperature projections indicate warmer-than-average conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in sections of central to northern Ethiopia.
Beyond the seasonal outlook, ICPAC issued several advisories, urging governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners to make active use of both regional forecasts and country-specific updates from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
Users were also encouraged to monitor updated seasonal, sub-seasonal and short-term forecasts to support timely decision-making.
The centre called for enhanced preparedness and early action to reduce the impacts of floods and droughts, protect lives and livelihoods, and secure critical infrastructure. ICPAC said it will continue releasing regular regional updates, while national agencies will provide detailed, country-level guidance.
Emphasising regional collaboration, ICPAC Director Abdi Fidar said GHACOF remains a key platform for aligning climate risk assessments and translating forecasts into early action across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Kenya Meteorological Department Director Edward Muriuki underscored the importance of early warning systems, saying they provide timely information that enables governments and communities to prepare for climate-related hazards.
Similarly, Principal Secretary for the State Department for Environment and Climate Change, Dr Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno, highlighted the role of climate services in linking climate science to practical action that supports lives, livelihoods and sustainable development.
As the region approaches the long rains season, ICPAC stressed the need for informed planning and early action to maximise benefits while minimising climate-related risks.
