Kenya is losing an estimated Sh9 billion each year due to a spike in the illicit cigarette trade, which now accounts for 37 percent of the country’s tobacco market, according to a new report.
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The findings, published by global research firm Kantar, show that more than one in three cigarettes smoked in Kenya is untaxed and unregulated, posing a serious threat to government revenue.
This marks a significant increase from last year’s figure of 27 percent, reflecting a worsening problem.
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) also reported a rise in the value of smuggled goods, with the declared worth of illicit imports climbing by Sh43.5 million to reach Sh243.5 million in 2024.
British American Tobacco (BAT) Kenya Managing Director Crispin Achola raised concern over the trend, warning of its damaging effects on the economy and national security.
“The surge in illegal cigarette trade is robbing the government of essential revenue and jeopardizing the livelihoods of thousands along the value chain,” Achola stated.
Kantar’s data indicates Uganda as the primary source of the smuggled products, suggesting that organized cross-border networks are taking advantage of Kenya’s porous boundaries.
Achola called for coordinated action to curb the flow of illegal tobacco, urging stronger enforcement and multi-agency collaboration.
While Kenya has taken measures to combat the underground trade, BAT emphasized the importance of broader partnerships—including with law enforcement, government agencies, civil society, and the media—to tighten oversight and seal enforcement gaps.
The report concludes by urging a reassessment of border control strategies and a reinforced crackdown to prevent further economic losses linked to the thriving black market.
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