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The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) has warned that eight of its member countries are bracing for major trade disruptions following new reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.
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In a statement, the Secretariat said the levies could sharply cut trade volumes in 2025. Those most affected include the Democratic Republic of Congo (11%), Libya (31%), Madagascar (47%), Malawi (17%), Mauritius (40%), Tunisia (28%), Zambia, and Zimbabwe (18%).
According to a policy brief by COMESA’s Trade and Customs Division, the U.S. may not be a leading trade partner, but the tariffs will trigger supply and demand shocks across the region.
Higher production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. could dampen its economy, reducing demand for COMESA exports such as Kenyan textiles and Zambian copper, while also inflating the price of U.S. capital goods imported into Africa.
Trade data shows COMESA’s share of U.S. trade has been relatively small—exports accounting for 3–4% and imports 4–5% between 2019 and 2023. Still, the new measures mark a sharp reversal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which since 2000 has allowed duty-free access for qualifying African countries.
COMESA’s Director of Trade and Customs, Dr. Christopher Onyango, said the tariffs undermine AGOA’s spirit and could trigger production cuts and job losses in Africa. Currently, 35 African states, including 10 from COMESA, qualify under AGOA.
Concerns are also rising over potential retaliatory action from the EU and China, COMESA’s top trading partners, which could worsen the impact. Analysts estimate the combined effect of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures could shave 0.43% off global GDP, hitting African exports hard.
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To cushion members, the policy paper recommends a cooperative negotiation strategy with partners such as the EU, China, Japan, India, and the Middle East. It also calls for deeper regional integration, stronger African value chains, and increased investment in infrastructure by institutions like AfDB, ExIM Bank, and TDB.
The Secretariat stressed its commitment to defending member states’ interests and enhancing regional economic resilience through coordinated trade and investment initiatives.
