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The Kenya Meteorological Department has released an alert forecasting heavy rainfall in several parts of the country over the coming days.
In its advisory, the department indicated that areas are likely to receive more than 20mm of rain within 24 hours between March 3 and March 9, 2026. The rains are expected to range from moderate to heavy, with the probability of occurrence estimated at between 33 and 66 per cent.
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Kenya Met stated that the rainfall is projected to intensify and reach its peak between March 4 and March 7 before easing in many regions from March 8. However, heavy downpours exceeding 20mm in a day may persist until March 9 in the Lake Victoria Basin, Western Kenya, parts of the Central Highlands, the Southeastern lowlands, and the Coastal region.
Counties highlighted as potentially affected include Turkana, Samburu, Migori, Nyamira, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, West Pokot, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii, Kericho, Bomet, Kiambu, Embu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, and Nyeri.
Other areas likely to experience heavy rains are Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Nairobi, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Kwale, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Garissa, as well as parts of Wajir and Mandera.
Residents have been urged to stay vigilant for possible flooding, flash floods, and reduced visibility. The department warned that floodwaters can occur even in areas that have not received heavy rainfall, particularly in downstream locations.
The public has been advised to avoid walking or driving through moving water or open fields and to refrain from seeking shelter under trees or near grilled windows to reduce the risk of lightning strikes.
Kenya Met also noted that the long rains season has started earlier than usual in several regions, encouraging farmers to begin planting to take advantage of the favourable conditions. It explained that the threshold for the onset of long rains—at least 20mm of rain over three consecutive days without a dry spell longer than seven days—has already been met since mid-February in western, central, and highland areas, including Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the highlands west of the Rift Valley.
The early onset has been attributed to favourable atmospheric conditions linked to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has temporarily enhanced moisture and rainfall across various regions. However, the department cautioned that the MJO is expected to shift to less favourable phases by mid-March, potentially leading to reduced rainfall and increased chances of dry spells in some areas.
