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Kenyans are awaiting the latest fuel price announcement from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority expected Thursday evening, amid concerns over rising global oil prices linked to growing tensions in the Middle East.
The monthly review, which sets the retail prices of petrol, diesel, and kerosene, comes as consumers continue to feel the impact of the significant fuel price increases introduced in April.
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Under the current pricing cycle ending May 14, fuel prices in Nairobi surpassed Sh206 per litre for both petrol and diesel following one of the biggest adjustments in recent years.
The local fuel market has remained under pressure due to instability in global oil supply chains caused by the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
The situation worsened after attacks targeting oil infrastructure in the Gulf region and continued disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route responsible for transporting a large share of the world’s crude oil.
Global energy agencies have warned that oil supplies are tightening rapidly, with Brent crude prices rising sharply amid fears of prolonged shortages.
This week, the International Energy Agency cautioned that the ongoing Iran conflict could result in global oil demand exceeding supply throughout 2026, increasing the likelihood of further price increases.
As a country heavily reliant on imported petroleum products, Kenya remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil markets.
Industry reports indicate that Kenya previously depended heavily on fuel imports from Gulf countries, but disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis have forced importers to seek alternative and more costly supplies from countries such as Nigeria and the United States.
In April, EPRA attributed the sharp rise in pump prices to increased landed costs of imported fuel. Diesel import costs reportedly jumped by up to 68 percent, while petrol costs rose by more than 40 percent within a month.
To cushion consumers, the government reduced Value Added Tax on petroleum products from 16 percent to 13 percent and also utilized the Petroleum Development Levy to ease the burden of higher prices.
The fuel hikes have already pushed up the cost of living, with transport fares, food prices, and other essential expenses rising in several parts of the country.
Business associations and consumer rights groups have warned that another increase in fuel prices could intensify inflation and further raise the cost of basic goods and services.
Analysts estimate that Kenya has already spent billions of shillings more on fuel imports since the Middle East crisis escalated earlier this year.
The upcoming EPRA review is expected to determine whether the government will continue subsidizing fuel prices or allow consumers to shoulder more of the increasing global costs.
Fuel prices announced by EPRA usually take effect at midnight and remain applicable until the 14th of the following month.
