Ruto Suffers Major Blow as Sifuna Takes Lead in Nairobi and Western Kenya – TIFA

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged ahead of President William Ruto in several parts of the country in the race for Kenyans’ preferred presidential candidate in the 2027 General Election, according to a new opinion poll by TIFA Research

The November 2026 survey reveals shifting regional political preferences, with Sifuna recording significant support in Western Kenya and Nairobi, while Ruto continues to dominate several other regions.

Under Article 138(4) of the Constitution of Kenya, 2010, a presidential candidate can only be declared the winner after satisfying two key electoral requirements.

Click here to join our WhatsApp Channel

The candidate must secure more than half of all votes cast, plus at least one additional vote, and obtain at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties.

According to the survey, Sifuna enjoys his strongest support in Western Kenya, where he commands 55 per cent compared to Ruto’s 25 per cent.

In Nairobi, the senator also takes the lead with 39 per cent, significantly ahead of the President, who attracts 13 per cent.

Along the Coast, however, Ruto maintains a narrow advantage with 40 per cent support against Sifuna’s 36 per cent.

Sifuna also leads in the South Rift region, securing 33 per cent compared to Ruto’s 29 per cent.

In Mt Kenya, the Nairobi senator records 32 per cent, while Ruto attracts 11 per cent, according to the findings.

The political contest appears closer in Nyanza, where Ruto leads with 35 per cent against Sifuna’s 31 per cent.

The President maintains a commanding advantage in the Central Rift, attracting 59 per cent support compared to Sifuna’s 16 per cent.

Ruto also enjoys substantial backing in Northern Kenya, where he leads with 62 per cent, while Sifuna trails at 20 per cent.

Meanwhile, Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka remains the preferred presidential candidate in Lower Eastern, where he commands 55 per cent support. Ruto follows with 20 per cent, while Sifuna records 8 per cent.

The findings point to an increasingly competitive political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election, with different presidential hopefuls enjoying varying levels of support across the country.

While Ruto maintains strong backing in Central Rift and Northern Kenya, Sifuna appears to be gaining considerable traction in Western and Nairobi.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, continues to dominate his Lower Eastern political stronghold, highlighting the regional dynamics likely to influence the 2027 presidential contest.